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Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter (October-December) of 2011-12


  
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (October-December) Q3 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are presented below.

I          ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a)       At constant (2004-05) prices

1.         Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 13,39,603 crore, as against Rs. 12,62,794 crore in Q3 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.1 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.  Quarterly estimates and growth rates of 2010-11 have undergone revision on account of revision in annual estimates of 2009-10 and 2010-11. The revision in annual estimate of 2009-10 is mainly on account of using ASI data for 2009-10 and the new series of IIP for 2010-11 in the manufacturing sector. These changes have also resulted in changes in estimates of ‘trade, hotels and restaurants’ sector.

2.         The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11 are, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 9.0 per cent, ‘construction’ at 7.2 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 9.2 per cent, and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 9.0 per cent and ‘community, social & personal services’ at 7.9 per cent.  The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘manufacturing’ is estimated at 2.7 per cent, (-) 3.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively in this period. 

3.         According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 3.2.2012 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2011-12, the production of coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2011-12 is estimated to have declined by 4.6 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively, and rice has increased by 11.8 per cent over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year.   Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is estimated to have declined by 5.1 per cent during the Kharif season of 2011-12, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture year 2011-12. However, horticultural crops and livestock products are expected to grow at 2.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, during 2011-12.

4.         According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 4.6 per cent, 0.8 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 9.2 per cent and 6.5 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2010-11.  In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 0.8 per cent and (-) 4.1 per cent in Q3 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 1.6 per cent and 15.5 per cent in Q3 of 2010-11. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 9.4 per cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12.

5.         Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 5.3 per cent and 5.6 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12, as against the growth rates of 4.0 per cent and 6.2 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of 22.0 per cent, (-) 4.8 per cent, (-) 2.8 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11.  The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.9 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2011-12 over the corresponding period in 2010-11.  

(b)        At current prices

6.         GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 21,50,159 crore, as against Rs. 18,82,269 crore in Q3, 2010-11, showing an increase of 14.2 per cent. 

7.         The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.3 per cent, 4.0 per cent, 20.4 per cent, 22.4 per cent, 7.9 per cent, 2.6 per cent,  and 8.9 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2011-12, over Q3 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 8.4 per cent during Q3 of 2011-12 over Q3 of 2010-11.

II         ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

8.         The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

9.       Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 13,56,576 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 11,78,121 crore in Q3 of 2010-11.  At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 8,69,193 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 8,18,122 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2011-12 are estimated at 58.9 per cent and 60.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.4 per cent and 60.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

10.       Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,96,369 crore  in  Q3 of  2011-12 as against Rs. 2,61,431 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,75,952 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,68,576 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2011-12 are estimated at 12.9 per cent and 12.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 13.0 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 6,37,212 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,99,854 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,32,169 crore in Q3 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 4,37,564 crore in Q3 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2011-12 are estimated at 27.6 per cent and 30.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11.

12.       Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP at market prices for Q3 and April-December, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

13.       The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2012 (Q4 of 2011-12) will be on 31.05.2012.


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